Statistical Sampling & Analysis Services for Audit Support
Econometrica provides statistical sampling and analysis support for audits and other efforts to identify improper payments and noncompliance with program/regulatory requirements. This support includes (1) the development of detailed sampling plans, (2) the subsequent advanced statistical analysis of the results, and (3) the submittal of comprehensive reports that document the methodologies used and certify the statistical validity of the analysis.
About Statistical Sampling & Analysis
Our experience in this area includes work performed under the structured requirements of the Improper Payment Elimination and Recovery Improvement Act (IPERIA) and the Improper Payment Elimination Recovery Act (IPERA).
Staff members who conduct these analyses are senior statisticians and econometricians who have many years of experience providing services to both public- and private-sector clients.
Export–Import Bank of the United States (EXIM):
- Econometrica provided EXIM’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) with efficient sampling methodologies and representative (random) samples for three populations subject to compliance with IPERA: one for administration expenses, a second for claim payments, and a third for loan disbursements.
Federal Communications Commission (FCC):
- As a subcontractor to McKonly & Asbury, Econometrica developed a statistical sampling methodology and analysis that was included in McKonly and Asbury’s IPERIA report for assessing improper disbursements from the FCC’s Telecommunications Relay Service (TRS) Fund, which compensates TRS providers for reasonable costs of providing interstate telephone transmission services that enable a person with a hearing or speech disability to communicate with a person without hearing or speech disabilities.
Universal Service Administrative Company (USAC):
- Econometrica provides USAC with audit support consisting of stratified random sampling, statistical modeling, and analysis services for its Payment Quality Assurance (PQA) Internal Audit Division (which includes the Schools and Libraries, Lifeline, High Cost, and Rural Health Care programs), the Billed Entity Application Reimbursements program, and the High Cost Mobility Fund.
- For the High Cost Mobility Fund, Econometrica prepares sampling plans for audits of the following eight High Cost programs to ensure compliance with FCC rules and regulations: Connect America Fund Phase I, Connect America Fund Phase II, Connect America Fund Phase II Auctions, Alternative Cost America Model, Mobility Fund, Rural Broadband Experiments, Connect America Fund Broadband Loop Support, and Alaska Plan. Because these audits address discrete cases of broadband deployment, rather than continuous funding disbursements, binomial and hypergeometric distributions are used to compute key parameters in the sampling plans.
- Econometrica provides stratified random statistical sampling and analysis services for USAC’s PQA Program, which monitors beneficiary compliance with support mechanism regulations, and provides information to FCC for reporting under IPERIA. By analyzing past data on improper payments, Econometrica has been able to substantially reduce the minimum sufficient sample sizes necessary to meet the required precision criteria of a 95-percent confidence level and a 3-percent margin of error.
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):
- As a subcontractor, Econometrica developed stratified random sampling plans for beneficiary appeal audits and quality of care audits in Avar Consulting’s Performance Audit Report of the Beneficiary and Family Centered Care (BFCC) National Coordinating Oversight & Review Center (NCORC).
- Econometrica evaluated CMS’ use of recovery audit contractors (RACs) to identify and correct improper payments for Part A or B Medicare services. Work included developing a sampling plan and creating a sample of RAC-reviewed claims for use in the ongoing RAC validation.
U.S. Department of Defense (DOD):
- As a subcontractor to Cotton & Company, Econometrica has been providing the Navy’s OIG with assistance in auditing its Schedule of Budgetary Activities (SBA) and is responsible for developing a sampling strategy for the audits; analyzing quarterly transactional data; preparing a quarterly sample in accordance with the sampling strategy; analyzing results of the sample audits; and extrapolating the sample results to the population of financial activities reported in the SBA.
- As a subcontractor to Kearney & Company, Econometrica has been providing the Marine Corps’ OIG with assistance in auditing its SBA and is responsible for developing a stratified random sampling strategy for the audits; analyzing quarterly transactional data; preparing a quarterly sample in accordance with the sampling strategy; analyzing results of the sample audits; and extrapolating the sample results to the population of financial activities reported in the SBA.
- As a subcontractor to Cotton & Company, Econometrica has been providing the U.S. Transportation Command with assistance by developing stratified random sampling strategies to obtain samples that meet the required precision and cost criteria for its expenditure audits.
- As a subcontractor to Acuity, Econometrica provided review and advice for the monetary-unit sampling methodology used to draw and analyze samples for audits being conducted by the Defense Information Systems Agency.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Food and Nutrition Service (FNS):
- Econometrica estimated and forecast misclassification and erroneous payment rates and amounts for qualifying Family Day Care Homes operating under the FNS Child and Adult Care Food Program.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD):
- Econometrica provided HUD’s Office of Public and Indian Housing (PIH) with quality assurance support for its Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program by identifying errors in HCV subsidy amounts and by recommending approaches to error correction.
- Using a sample of public housing authority data, Econometrica identified errors in HUD’s utility expenditure subsidies.
- To evaluate HUD’s Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD) program, Econometrica chose a quasi-experimental research design that matched a sample of non-RAD program participants to a sample of RAD program participants using a propensity score matching technique called genetic matching.
- To assess the capital needs of public housing, Econometrica is using stratified random sampling without replacement from the population of public housing authorities that own and manage public housing developments.
U.S. Department of Education, Cost Estimation and Analysis Division (CEAD):
- Econometrica developed an interactive spreadsheet model to provide CEAD analysts with a measure of the precision of subpopulation estimates taken from their sample of more than 2 million borrowers with associated loan records.
"Econometrica is proactive in creating analysis and proposing solutions.”
—Contracting Officer’s Representative comment from an Econometrica CMS project