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Census Releases Demonstration Data and Progress Metrics for New DAS

The Census Bureau continues to roll out data and information from the 2020 census. On April 28, it provided information about a new cryptography-inspired disclosure avoidance system (DAS) to protect the privacy of respondents. Using data from the 2010 census for demonstration purposes, Census has released several files of data to solicit feedback from users. The bureau hopes users can provide detailed information on the files’ fitness-for use, privacy, and any improvements that should be made.

More information can be found at:

Using data from the 2010 census for demonstration purposes, Census has released several files of data to solicit feedback from users.

The State Data Resource Center’s Recommendations to Support Vaccine Equity

As of April 26, 29 percent of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated. Vaccines are now available to all U.S. adults, and 2.6 million doses are being administered in the United States every day. As vaccination rates continue to increase, it is important that vaccine distribution is monitored to ensure that vulnerable populations are reached. Ensuring equitable access to the COVID-19 vaccine—recognized as a national priority by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) —requires that data are available and appropriately used to evaluate socioeconomic and demographic vaccine distribution trends.

Earlier this month, the State Data Resource Center (SDRC) released information to support states in identifying COVID-19 vaccination Medicare claims among their dually eligible beneficiaries. SDRC was established by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) in 2011 to help states obtain dually eligible beneficiary data. Econometrica supports CMS in providing resources to states to assist in requesting and using Medicare data files for care coordination and program integrity purposes.

The COVID-19 vaccine information was posted as an announcement on the SDRC website, developed and operated by Econometrica, and includes a recommended process for identifying COVID-19 vaccine claims in both the Coordination of Benefits Agreement (eCOBA) file and the monthly Parts A and B dataset. In both files, Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (HCPCS) codes are used to identify COVID-19 vaccine claims. Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson each have their own assigned HCPCS codes with additional vaccine administration codes that specify whether the claim was the individual’s first or second dose.

In addition to identifying COVID-19 vaccine claims and ensuring each beneficiary received the appropriate number of doses, SDRC recommends that states link these claims to the beneficiary’s demographic information. In doing so, disparities in vaccine uptake across race/ethnicity, disability status, or geography can be evaluated and addressed.

The SDRC announcement highlights an important opportunity for state Medicaid agencies. Analyses, made possible through the use of SDRC data and the SDRC support team, can help to inform policy. By identifying any racial, ethnic, or socioeconomic disparities in access to COVID-19 vaccines, state policymakers can shift their distribution plans to ensure vaccines are available to vulnerable, dually eligible beneficiaries.

Vaccines are now available to all U.S. adults, and 2.6 million doses are being administered in the United States every day.

Census Announces Results of 2020 Census, Population Counts for Apportionment

Census Announces Results of 2020 Census, Population Counts for Apportionment

The U.S. Census announced on April 26 that the 2020 census shows the population of the United States is 331,449,281. This represents growth of 7.4 percent from the 2010 census. This also represents the second slowest population growth rate in U.S. history.

“The American public deserves a big thank you for its overwhelming response to the 2020 Census,” Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said in a statement. “Despite many challenges, our nation completed a census for the 24th time. This act is fundamental to our democracy and a declaration of our growth and resilience. I also want to thank the team at the U.S. Census Bureau, who overcame unprecedented challenges to collect and produce high-quality data that will inform decision-making for years to come.”

The population grew the fastest over the last decade in the South (10.2 percent) and in the West (9.2 percent). The Northeast and Midwest saw slower growth (4.1 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively). On average, each member of the House will represent 761,169 residents.

Map showing the percent change in resident population for the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, from 2010 to 2020

Map showing the percent change in resident population for the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, from 2010 to 2020. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-map03.png.

The data release also included the State population counts used to apportion the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The 2022 election will be the first to use this new data. In total, seven seats will shift:

  • Six States will gain House seats; Texas gained two seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each gained one seat.
  • Seven states—California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia—each will lose one seat.

Apportionment, which takes place every 10 years, is the process of distributing the 435 seats in the House among the 50 States. The results of the 2020 census are used to draw congressional and State legislative districts. The apportionment population excludes the population of the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, which do not have voting members in the House.

Map showing apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives Based on the 2020 Census

Map showing apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives based on the 2020 census. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-map01.png.

Local to Econometrica:

  • Maryland’s population was 6,177,224, up from 5,773,552 in 2010.
  • Virginia’s population rose to 8,631,393 from 8,001,024 in 2010.
  • The District of Columbia was 689,545, up from 601,723 in 2010.

For more information about the 2020 census data and apportionment, visit the Census Bureau’s 2020 Census Apportionment Results press kit.

Related Links:

The population grew the fastest over the last decade in the South (10.2 percent) and in the West (9.2 percent). The Northeast and Midwest saw slower growth (4.1 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively).

Econometrica’s Statement Following Conviction of Derek Chauvin

Econometrica’s Statement Following Conviction of Derek Chauvin

GeorgeFloydBETHESDA, MD – The past year has been difficult for many reasons, not least because the Nation has witnessed many traumatizing instances of police brutality against Black Americans. The trial and conviction of Derek Chauvin for the murder of George Floyd is but a small step toward bringing accountability to and eliminating systemic racism from our justice system. The trial may be over, but the conversation about structural racism and inequity must not end here.

Econometrica continues, and will always, actively stand with the Black community, our colleagues, their families, and clients in the fight against racism, injustice, and inequality. We will continue to strive to create and maintain a diverse and welcoming workplace, something that is pivotal to our high-quality work, mission, and success. Our colleagues deserve it, and our clients and partners expect it. We must not lose sight of these issues, today or in the future; we must instead work to make a positive impact on the world.

Econometrica continues, and will always, actively stand with the Black community, our colleagues, their families, and clients in the fight against racism, injustice, and inequality.

Suez Blockage Highlights Need for Transportation Network Vulnerability Tools

The recent blockage of the Suez Canal delayed worldwide shipping and caused billions in damages. A Bloomberg analysis reported that the grounding of the Ever Given held up as much as $9.6 billion in cargo per day, and The New York Times reported that it could take years to sort out all of the costs of the blockage.

The blockage highlights the need for transportation network vulnerability assessment tools, such as the port delay model developed by Econometrica to help the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) evaluate the economic costs of port closures.

USCG regulations affect a wide range of nonmarket factors, including risks of fatal and nonfatal injuries, ecosystem damage due to oil and hazardous materials spills, and economic disruption associated with natural and manmade disasters. As part of a larger study to advance the methods USCG uses to estimate the benefits of its regulations, Econometrica developed two scenario-based simulation models to estimate the economic costs of maritime transportation delays:

  • Deep Water Port (DWP) model
  • Inland Waterway (IW) model

The DWP model addresses delays associated with ocean-borne freight, whereas the IW model addresses freight delays that occur as a result of disruptions on inland waterways. Both models allow USCG to posit a variety of scenarios involving both expected and unexpected port disruptions/closures.

The models incorporate queuing and rerouting algorithms that depend on the specified length of the delay for the scenario. The models can distinguish between short-term delays—where delayed cargo is not rerouted—and longer-term delays, in which cargo is rerouted to a different port to mitigate the increasing cost of waiting for the delay to clear. In this regard, the models provide costs associated with queuing (or waiting for the delay to clear) as well as rerouting, if applicable.

The main cost elements include:

  • Increased transportation costs (e.g., fuel and other operating expenses) that accrue during the delay as a result of increased transit time, rerouting, and/or use of alternative modes of inland transportation.
    • Marine vessels.
    • Inland transportation modes.
  • Costs to shippers resulting from the additional transit time, including depreciation and inventory carrying costs.
  • Environmental costs that ensue as a result of increased transportation distances associated with rerouting or the temporary use of alternative transportation modes that have higher pollution emission rates.
  • Public safety costs attributable to reduced safety due to increased transportation distances associated with rerouting or temporary use of alternative transportation modes that are less safe than the normal water transportation modes used.

To create a specific user-defined scenario, users must enter the following types of information:

  • The length of the delay incident.
  • The volume of freight delayed during the incident.
  • Whether the delay is caused by an expected or unexpected type of event.
  • The coast on which the delay incident occurs.
  • Whether a random port is affected or a specific port is affected.
  • Whether all commodities are affected or a specific commodity is affected.

The models use this information to compute how much cargo is rerouted and queued, the additional time and distance associated with queuing and rerouting, and how long it takes to clear the delayed cargo given the backlog generated during the incident. The DWP model uses a gravity-like algorithm in conjunction with the Federal Highway Administration’s Freight Analysis Framework database to reroute cargo from affected ports to alternate ports; the algorithm also computes several weighted-average metrics associated with rerouting, including marine distances, inland transportation distances, and inland transportation mode shifts. The IW model uses a tow arrival algorithm to capture rerouting decisions when there are closures on the Nation’s inland waterway system.

Based on these calculations, the models estimate the total economic costs attributable to the simulated port closure. The models also provide other capabilities, including the ability to compare delay costs for different commodity groups and the inclusion of a regulatory scenario analyzer that projects delay costs over a user-specified forecast horizon.

The blockage highlights the need for transportation network vulnerability assessment tools, such as the port delay model developed by Econometrica to help the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) evaluate the economic costs of port closures.